Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

What’s often misunderstood about Google’s incrementality testing and how Bayesian models use probability to guide better decisions.

Physicists have derived a quantum version of Bayes’ rule, revealing how beliefs and probabilities update in the quantum realm with potential applications in computing and beyond. Credit: Shutterstock ...

How do you shape perception ethically when storytelling beats facts? One compelling framework that offers clarity is Bayesian persuasion, introduced by economists Kamenica and Gentzkow in 2011, —a ...

Abstract: We use Markov categories to generalize the basic theory of Markov chains and hidden Markov models to an abstract setting. This comprises characterizations of hidden Markov models in terms of ...

In a world of uncertainty and shifting narratives, this post proposes a new model for investing: Bayesian edge investing. Unlike modern portfolio theory, which assumes equilibrium and perfect ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

The mathematics behind artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) rely on linear algebra, calculus, probability, and statistics. These provide the foundation for developing the needed ...

Many cybersecurity leaders kick off each new year with predictions for the year to come. You may have seen a deluge of them over the last month or so: "Cyberattacks will continue to be a problem." ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...